Economists Say: Hard Brexit ‘Would Cost Europe Twice as Many Jobs as UK’


Economists warned that if a hard Brexit takes place, twice as many jobs will be lost in Europe as the UK.

If Britain walks away from the bloc without a deal, up to a maximum 1.2 million jobs will be axed across the European Union, together with around 526,000 in the United Kingdom.

This week, for a fourth round of talks, Barnier and David Davis, the Brexit secretary of the United Kingdom, meet but seem like a far apart as ever on the key issues of the Irish border, the divorce bill, and the future of citizens’ rights.

Theresa May attempted to break the impasse with her speech in Florence, Italy last week – however, the prime minister again stated that for Britain, no deal would be better than a bad deal.

The university research, by economists William Connell, Wouter Simons, and  Hylke Vandenbussche said that the EU27 would endure a 1.54 percent decrease in GDP if a hard Brexit is the ultimate result when the United Kingdom leaves the European Union in early 2019.

And it concluded such a scenario, under which Britain and the European Union go back to trading under the terms of the WTO, could see the United Kingdom endure a 4.48 percent drop in GDP, strengthening the view that failing to settle a deal would be a “lose-lose” situation.

In official terms, Germany would be included to the nations to lose out the heaviest, but smaller countries such as Malta and Ireland have most to lose, stated the CFO.

The research supports previous reports which have also recommended that a return to the WTO terms would have a damaging impact on the European economy as well as Britain.

On Tuesday, Theresa May met with Donald Tusk, the European Council president. The first opportunity she had to gauge the view of a major EU leader to her Florence speech.

While Tusk described her speech as sensible, showing the United Kingdom’s “philosophy of having a cake and eating it was finally coming to an end,” Tusk added that there was not “sufficient progress yet” to continue to the next phase of talks.

There have been speculations that the United Kingdom will offer €20bn to pay for commitments during the two-year transition period, although no figure has been revealed publicly.