Probability Of A No-Brexit Raised By JP Morgan


According to a research note that was published by one of the economists of JP Morgan last Wednesday morning, he claimed that there is now a 40 percent chance of the United Kingdom staying in the European Union.

Yesterday, the top legal advisor of the European Court of Justice said that the United Kingdom could unilaterally execute a U-turn on Article 50 if it wanted to. Malcolm Barr, the JP Morgan economist, cited the advisor’s comments and said that the United Kingdom could still take the time to hold a second Brexit referendum, despite the exit date that is scheduled at the end of March going nearer.

He stated: “The UK now appears to have the option of revoking unilaterally and taking a period of time of its own choosing to decide what happens next. That time could be used to hold a second referendum on terms entirely decided by the UK.”

He increased his estimation of the potential of Brexit being cancelled from 20 percent to 40 percent. He also estimated that the likelihood of a no-deal scenario – but still a Brexit – narrowed to 10 per cent from the previous 20 percent.

Meanwhile, he noted that an orderly Brexit, with a deal and a transition period in place, was now just 50 percent possible to happen. It is down from a previous estimation of 60 percent.

On Wednesday morning, Andrea Leadsom, the leader of the House of Commons, has said that a no-deal Brexit would be the “default” result if parliament rejects the deal of Prime Minister Theresa May next week.

In an interview with the Today programme of the BBC, she stated: “Unless government were to do something completely different to change tack, or indeed to pass this deal, then we will be leaving the EU on 29 March next year without a deal, so it defaults to no deal.”

The MPs across parties have promised to vote against the deal of the Prime Minister, including the Democratic Unionist Party which is the one that props up the minority Conservative government.

Labour has also said that it will be voting against the deal. Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary,  said that rejecting it could eventually result in a second referendum, on that is a so-called People’s Vote.